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BGonline.org Forums
Clarification
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Why Not Pass? (Marv Porten)
Date: Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 12:21 a.m.
Some issues are in play here:
(1) Is Blue guaranteed in advance that he will face this one-roll 25% position for the second through eighth games? (Note that if Blue wins the first six games, or the first six of seven games, Crawford is reached, so #1 is technically flawed unless supplemented by #2 or other caveat or an exceptional limit.)
(2) Must Blue decide in advance to take all eight games or drop all eight games, or can he act selectively?
(3) Are you controlling or limiting the variance of the 25%? For example, is Blue guaranteed to lose three games for every one he wins? Exactly how does that work? For example, if he takes and wins the first, does that mean he will lose the second, third and fourth if/when he takes? Or if he takes and loses the first two, does that automatically mean he will win exactly one of the third and fourth?
If you clarify those points (possibly even to yourself), it might help for a more informed discussion. It seems to me that part of the confusion is that respondents are treating (or not) some of these issues as conditions and others as an intended proof.
Nack
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