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Why Not Pass?

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 7:06 a.m.

In Response To: Why Not Pass? (Marv Porten)

You are taking a position that is a dead-cube pass at most match scores when the leader is more than 5-away, so it is not surprising it is a dead-cube pass at most match scores in a 13-point match when the leader is more than 5-away.

There are still a few flaws in your thinking; 'Instead of taking, let's say you drop all eight cubes. The score is 0-8/13, and your chances of winning the match are 14% (which is much better than the 5.6% MWC if you took all eight cubes). So, why not pass all eight times?'

First of all, if you took all 8 cubes, your chances of winning would be about 13%, not 5.6%. You can confirm this by going through the chances of winning 8 of 8, 7 of 8, 6 of 8, etc. and multiplying the percentage of the time each occurs by its resulting match equity. As stated before, variance favors the trailer.

Your 5.6% is only correct if you are guaranteed to win exactly 2 of the 8 games and if that was the case it would be a huge blunder to pass the first game. Do you know why?

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