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51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 28 March 2019, at 5:40 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 165 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBbBCBaBB---a-b-dab----:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.	Rollout1	11/6 10/9*	eq: +0.363
	Player: Opponent: 63.97% (G:26.59% B:1.09%) 36.03% (G:4.36% B:0.16%) Conf.: � 0.005 (+0.358...+0.368) - [99.4%] Duration: 41 minutes 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/10 11/6	eq: +0.355 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 66.42% (G:18.04% B:0.57%) 33.58% (G:3.34% B:0.10%) Conf.: � 0.004 (+0.350...+0.359) - [0.5%] Duration: 36 minutes 04 seconds
3.	Rollout2	10/9* 9/4	eq: +0.346 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 63.35% (G:26.05% B:1.10%) 36.65% (G:4.22% B:0.16%) Conf.: � 0.009 (+0.336...+0.355) - [0.1%] Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

John's rollout of his original position appears above.

There are two variants below, where one of White's 6pt spares has been moved. Among the three positions, three different best plays are covered.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBbBCBaBB---a-bacab----:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (White's 6pt spare is moved back 1 pip to her 7pt)

1.	Rollout1	11/10 11/6	eq: +0.329
	Player: Opponent: 65.47% (G:18.03% B:0.52%) 34.53% (G:3.58% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.325...+0.334) - [100.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 13 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/6 10/9*	eq: +0.313 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 62.08% (G:26.82% B:1.05%) 37.92% (G:4.62% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.308...+0.318) - [0.0%] Duration: 33 minutes 35 seconds
3.	Rollout1	10/9* 9/4	eq: +0.289 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 61.38% (G:25.74% B:0.95%) 38.62% (G:4.56% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.285...+0.294) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 31 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11856807 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 179 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBcBCBaBB---a-b-cab----:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 (White's 6pt spare is moved to her 20pt)

1.	Rollout1	10/9* 9/4	eq: +0.300
	Player: Opponent: 59.64% (G:32.22% B:1.29%) 40.36% (G:4.84% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.294...+0.306) - [100.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 52 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/10 11/6	eq: +0.286 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 61.50% (G:24.52% B:0.81%) 38.50% (G:4.24% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.281...+0.290) - [0.0%] Duration: 44 minutes 53 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/6 10/9*	eq: +0.276 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 58.80% (G:32.99% B:1.75%) 41.20% (G:6.08% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.270...+0.282) - [0.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 33595441 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• 51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 26 March 2019, at 9:58 p.m.
  • 51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame
    Justin Nowell -- Tuesday, 26 March 2019, at 10:56 p.m.
    • 51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame
      Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 27 March 2019, at 7:21 a.m.
    • 51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame
      Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 27 March 2019, at 7:53 a.m.
    • 51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 March 2019, at 8:31 p.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 28 March 2019, at 4:30 p.m.
    • 51 to play vs. a 5/2 backgame -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 28 March 2019, at 5:40 p.m.