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Probability puzzle 2

Posted By: Sam Pottle
Date: Thursday, 2 May 2019, at 6:46 a.m.

In Response To: Probability puzzle 2 (Ray Kershaw)

"Hey, Player A, who's going to eliminate you from the tournament?"

"What? My plan is to win it!"

"Okay, but objectively, your chances of winning it are 1/n, right?"

"I guess."

"And if you don't, you're equally likely to be eliminated by each of the other n-1 players."

"Okay..."

"So in particular, the chance that you'll be eliminated by Player B is exactly 1/n."

"That SOB!? He could never beat me! @#$%^&"

The probability that player A is eliminated by player B is 1/n. Likewise, the probability that Player B is eliminated by player A is 1/n. Note that these are exclusive probabilities; if the two meet, exactly one will be eliminated. So the probability that they meet is 2/n.

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