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Hit or not with this 51?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 4 May 2019, at 9:28 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or not with this 51? (John O'Hagan)

First, which hit is stronger? 8/7* 8/3 leaves fewer shots but they are much stronger. I like 8/7* 6/1 more as the 8 point is a good back-up blocking point and several return hits actually break White's board in this variation.

Now, hit or not?

The supposedly weaker hitting play of 8/7* 8/3 is easier to count so I'd start here. After the safe play I'd give White in her weak-ish deuce point game about 15%, not more. After the hit White hits back with 8 rolls giving her maybe something between 50-60%. So about 40% more. That's 8 x .4 = 3.2 shots or 9%. We should probably credit her slightly less (by 1-2%?) than that as we probably have slightly better chances in hit-and-miss sequence than after the safe play.

Do we win more enough gammons to compensate? I think yes. I think safe play gives us not more than 15% gammons overall but the hit certainly pushes it over a 30% mark. That seems like good enough to me.

8/7* 6/1

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