Here's a rollout of the original position. Casper had it exactly right the first try. Over the board, and like many respondents, I played 15/13 6/4 6/2, inviting a second blot, but also inviting 11 31 33. I'm wondering whether cube efficiency has a lot to do with it, because, to my surprise, have only a borderline re-cube (second position below) if you're put on the bar (though in practice you'd get plenty of drops, so it's a stronger practical cube than the numbers suggest) -- and if you hit the shot, you lose your market by a ton. But if you just play the containment game against the straggler, you get a more efficient cube at some point.
I never considered switching -- but maybe the second leap of a 3-prime is "more than it seems." It just seems so much easier to close the ace-point than the 3-point?
       
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 48 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aBBBBE--------A-----d-dA-:1:1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20 15/13 6/4 | eq: +0.451 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.36% (G:4.54% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.443...+0.458) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/13 6/4 3/1*(2) | eq: +0.432 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.38% (G:4.82% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.424...+0.439) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20.1 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/4 3/1*(2) | eq: +0.423 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.68% (G:5.29% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.416...+0.430) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.4 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/18 6/4 | eq: +0.409 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.41% (G:3.62% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.402...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.6 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 15/13 6/4 6/2 | eq: +0.385 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.53% (G:5.00% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.378...+0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.8 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/4 6/2 | eq: +0.379 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.15% (G:3.97% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.373...+0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.4 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 24/22 15/13 6/2 | eq: +0.376 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.12% (G:4.79% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.370...+0.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.9 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 15/7 | eq: +0.270 (-0.180) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.08% (G:10.67% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.263...+0.278) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.7 seconds |
|
| 9. | 3-ply | 24/22 15/13 6/4(2) | eq: +0.317 (-0.134) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.95% (G:4.71% B:0.16%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
-------------
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 45 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aCBCBC------A-------c-daA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 71.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.05% (G:2.61% B:0.07%) | 28.49% (G:2.63% B:0.07%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.392 | +0.806 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.637 (-0.001) | ±0.006 (+0.632..+0.643) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.639 | ±0.011 (+0.628..+0.649) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.361) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 58.1% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 37.9 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10