[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Initial Double Mystery 2 -- SOLUTION - Rollouts in Case

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 18 May 2019, at 7:33 a.m.

In Response To: Initial Double Mystery 2 -- SOLUTION (Nack Ballard)

Doubt anyone really cares but in case someone does.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 164
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.95% (G:19.22% B:0.77%) 58.44% (G:19.09% B:0.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.05% (G:12.08% B:1.44%) 41.56% (G:12.23% B:1.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.161 +0.604
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.599 (-0.005)±0.007 (+0.592..+0.606)
Double/Take:+0.604±0.008 (+0.596..+0.612)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.396)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90142146
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:81.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 43 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 162
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.23% (G:18.96% B:0.71%) 58.21% (G:19.60% B:0.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.77% (G:11.58% B:1.39%) 41.79% (G:12.78% B:2.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.171 +0.613
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.599 (-0.014)±0.016 (+0.583..+0.615)
Double/Take:+0.613±0.018 (+0.595..+0.631)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.387)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
968 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53440865
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:86.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 162
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.41% (G:18.89% B:0.79%) 58.67% (G:19.06% B:0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.59% (G:11.68% B:1.68%) 41.33% (G:12.08% B:1.75%)
Cubeless Equities +0.174 +0.618
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.604 (-0.014)±0.010 (+0.595..+0.614)
Double/Take:+0.618±0.011 (+0.607..+0.630)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.382)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53440865
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:96.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 162
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBD-B---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.36% (G:18.91% B:0.84%) 58.61% (G:18.99% B:0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.64% (G:11.05% B:1.27%) 41.39% (G:12.32% B:1.46%)
Cubeless Equities +0.184 +0.616
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.602 (-0.014)±0.009 (+0.593..+0.610)
Double/Take:+0.616±0.011 (+0.604..+0.627)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.384)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53440865
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:97.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 51 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 159
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BDaB---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.32% (G:20.29% B:0.82%) 57.37% (G:20.85% B:0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.68% (G:11.43% B:1.28%) 42.63% (G:12.32% B:1.55%)
Cubeless Equities +0.171 +0.608
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.589 (-0.019)±0.009 (+0.580..+0.598)
Double/Take:+0.608±0.011 (+0.597..+0.619)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.392)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53440865
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 158
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B-a-eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.28% (G:19.48% B:0.62%) 58.13% (G:20.17% B:0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.72% (G:10.04% B:1.13%) 41.87% (G:10.75% B:1.42%)
Cubeless Equities +0.203 +0.613
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.619±0.010 (+0.609..+0.629)
Double/Take:+0.613 (-0.006)±0.011 (+0.602..+0.623)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.381)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.6%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53440865
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:80.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 160
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.33% (G:18.78% B:0.81%) 58.40% (G:19.50% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.67% (G:11.86% B:1.66%) 41.60% (G:12.34% B:1.98%)
Cubeless Equities +0.168 +0.615
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.593 (-0.023)±0.013 (+0.580..+0.606)
Double/Take:+0.615±0.015 (+0.600..+0.631)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.385)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53440865
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.