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4-1 to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 16 July 2019, at 10:50 p.m.

In Response To: 4-1 to play (Karol Szczerek)

Yes, if one chooses to stay back then 18/17 is mandatory in order to give White bad sixes. The question is whether to stay back or to move closer to further reduce shots. Almost nobody would post a position like this if the bot play were 18/13, but OTB one doesn't have the luxury of QF. If Blue were behind in the pip count then staying back would be obvious, but here it's trickier because Blue is 10 pips ahead after the roll, with less wastage. But White has a blot in her board and Blue's board is almost perfect. So most of White's hitting rolls aren't instantly fatal, while Blue's hits are. Since the race is still fairly close, staying back should be better.

What if we vary the position by covering White's 6pt blot with the spare on the 5pt? Then playing 18/17 9/5 gives White 4 extra hitting rolls that decide the game immediately. As compensation, we get a direct shot when White rolls 61 62 63 64, and force her to waste pips with most other non-hitting rolls. So maybe we win 3 games as compensation? I'd play 18/13 in the variant.

Messages In This Thread

• 4-1 to play
  ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 July 2019, at 3:37 p.m.
  • 4-1 to play
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 16 July 2019, at 7:55 p.m.
    • 4-1 to play
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 16 July 2019, at 10:50 p.m.
      • 4-1 to play
        Stick -- Wednesday, 17 July 2019, at 8:10 a.m.
        • 4-1 to play
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 18 July 2019, at 11:10 p.m.
      • 4-1 to play
        Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 July 2019, at 7:35 a.m.
        • 4-1 to play
          Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 July 2019, at 7:41 a.m.
  • 4-1 to play ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 25 July 2019, at 3:07 p.m.
    • 4-1 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANT
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 28 July 2019, at 8:23 a.m.