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4-1 to play

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 18 July 2019, at 7:35 a.m.

In Response To: 4-1 to play (Timothy Chow)

In the variant you describe, we give up 4 additional hitting rolls, but how many of these White would have won in any case in the race? Say half (should be less than that), then the net loss in these variations is 2, and the 3 additional wins should more than compensate (I guess both the estimates of 2 and 3 are a little high).

There is also the impact of duplication - if you leave the 5 shot, then the rolls that hit have more pips than if you leave the ace shot. So White's hitting rolls and rolls that are good for the race are duplicated. The difference is not trivial (a bit less than 5 pips on average).

BTW, say you cover White's 6 with the blot of the ace. Compared to your variant, this makes our race better, and the impact on White's crunching variations smaller. You need to move up because you cannot afford to leave many decisive additional shots. The point is, after 18/14 you stop and play 9/8. 14/13 reduces the number of shots by 1, but stopping gains on 61 (a lot) and a bit on other aces that force wastage.

You only play 18/13 when your race is pretty good or your own board compromised.

Messages In This Thread

• 4-1 to play
  ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 July 2019, at 3:37 p.m.
  • 4-1 to play
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 16 July 2019, at 7:55 p.m.
    • 4-1 to play
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 16 July 2019, at 10:50 p.m.
      • 4-1 to play
        Stick -- Wednesday, 17 July 2019, at 8:10 a.m.
        • 4-1 to play
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 18 July 2019, at 11:10 p.m.
      • 4-1 to play
        Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 July 2019, at 7:35 a.m.
        • 4-1 to play
          Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 July 2019, at 7:41 a.m.
  • 4-1 to play ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 25 July 2019, at 3:07 p.m.
    • 4-1 to play ROLLOUT and VARIANT
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 28 July 2019, at 8:23 a.m.