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Prime vs prime cube action - RO & VAR

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 26 July 2019, at 10:22 p.m.

In Response To: Prime vs prime cube action (Karol Szczerek)

Thanks for all the input.

A reasonable take indeed.

The 4-prime is often underestimated and 5-prime overestimated. So I knew I was strong and I would take for money in a heart beat. At the score though, I thought White can escape and I can dance and I wouldn't like that exchange. Even if I enter and try to attack, she can hit the second guy and I would face some gammon danger. I just wanted to secure the lead and pass for 1 point.

As everyone mentioned, the position is pretty non-gammonish though. This fact lets Blue comfortably take.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 130
13 point match
pip: 102
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaaDCCD-----a--a--bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:D:11:3:0:13:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67,73% (G:10,74% B:0,21%) 68,63% (G:11,38% B:0,23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32,27% (G:9,52% B:0,82%) 31,37% (G:10,33% B:0,80%)
Cubeless Equities +0,321 +0,875
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,766 (-0,109)±0,007 (+0,759..+0,773)
Double/Take:+0,875±0,009 (+0,867..+0,884)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,125)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 9 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In a variant below, White has escaped one guy. It's enough to force a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 124
13 point match
pip: 102
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-DCCD-a---a--a--bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:D:11:3:0:13:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72,72% (G:12,00% B:0,22%) 74,13% (G:13,23% B:0,27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27,28% (G:7,98% B:0,51%) 25,87% (G:8,32% B:0,53%)
Cubeless Equities +0,455 +1,166
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,872 (-0,128)±0,005 (+0,867..+0,877)
Double/Take:+1,166 (+0,166)±0,008 (+1,158..+1,174)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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