[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 11 August 2019, at 8:16 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

OTB I estimated the trailer's tp to be 6.67% ATS (Pass with 4%, take and lose with 0%, take and win with 60%). What about the leader's minimum doubling point? Just use risk/risk+gain. Risk is the extra MWC you lose when you lose 8 rather than 2 and the gain is the extra MWC you gain when you win the match vs. when you win 2. I came up with a minimum doubling point of 90%. So the window is real small ATS - it opens at 90% and closes at 93.33%! XG's actual doubling window numbers are 90.8% and 93.21%. So you can consider doubling if your winning chances are somewhere in this small range. It's usually wrong though to cube at lopsided scores like this unless you're real close to the top end of the window.

Are we close here? 4 numbers leave a direct but that's just 4/36 x 11/36 which is less than 3.5%. Most of your other rolls clear the 5-point and leave you in a pretty safe position. White however will hang around as long as possible on your 2-point so there's future jeopardy to consider. Once you come down to 2 or 3 checkers on your 4-point, you'll have 6 more blot-leaving numbers. If White can stay there until you have 2 or 3 left on your 3-point, you'll have 10 or 20 shot-leaving numbers. It seems obvious that White has an easy take in this position.

I didn't cube here and that's clearly correct. Not good enough to double since we're not even in the doubling window. Another downside to cubing is that it kills our gammons. Big ND and an easy take.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 101
13 point match
pip: 43
score: 10

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EaDDB----------aaccbb-b--:1:1:1:00:10:3:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 89.81% (G:9.58% B:0.06%) 89.73% (G:15.12% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 10.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 10.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.847 +1.143
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.863ą0.004 (+0.859..+0.866)
Redouble/Take:+0.730 (-0.132)ą0.008 (+0.723..+0.738)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.137)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 32.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.