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Unequal skill rollout for 51$-21

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 26 September 2023, at 4:38 a.m.

In Response To: What are some BG stats you'd like to know? (Stick)

In 2010, Neil Kazaross performed an interesting Unequal Skill rollout with Gnu, projecting onto the rollout a "100 Elo" difference in player strength. It showed that with 51$-21 for money/unlimited (see position diagrammed below), it is far better to $ (Slot, 13/11 6/5) into a double direct shot than to play U (Up, 24/21). The margin was 52 millipoints (.052)!

Around the same time, a regular equal-strength Gnu rollout on strong settings typically made $ and U about a toss-up (from +.005 to -.005), which is not far from XG rollouts in the same time period, which favored and still favor U by about .010.

The size of the difference surprises me; OTOH, I don't know how to translate a 100 Elo difference in chess to backgammon.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
51$-21

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