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BGonline.org Forums
Unequal skill rollout for 51$-21
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Unequal skill rollout for 51$-21 (Nack Ballard)
Date: Tuesday, 26 September 2023, at 4:06 p.m.
It's commonly accepted that 100 elo in backgammon is around 3 PR. Wasn't clear if you knew that already or not. The only issue I saw in running these staggered elo rollouts is that depending on the strength of the bot's lower setting, it may just be making nonsense moves in which case the results are suspect at best. If you play the bot on certain levels you'll see this and not even bad humans are making the moves that it makes.
That being said, I agree with a lot of such plays/decisions. I've never really seen a world class + backgammon player adjust how they're supposed to in my mind. I think the fear of having a bad PR keeps all these types of players at bay in that sense because you will put up some high PRs (for a WC player) if you properly adjust. It's similar to how long it took the NFL to toss some common sense into a game where you're regularly attempting to concuss people and go for it on a lot of 4th and short situations. I used to holler as a child over these and a lot of other situations of teams playing to lose with dignity or however you want to phrase (or the coach is flat out scared of losing his job when it goes wrong, which it should of course often enough) it instead of giving themselves the best chances to win.
I don't watch sports much at all any more aside from tennis but over the weekend I caught two games hanging out with people. The Ohio State game where it drove me crazy listen to commentators trying to fill air with their babbling saying things like "It's 3rd and long" when it was 3rd and 6 to go or "positive gain" as if the word gain didn't support the idea of the team having advanced the ball enough or etc...However the Raiders/Steelers game was one where a late game decision came up that I completely disagreed with but what do I know.
Here's the situation as I remember it though feel free to double check the details. It was the fourth quarter with about 2 minutes and 30 seconds left. The score was Steelers 23, Raiders 15. The Raiders had the ball on the Steeler's 8 or 9 yard line and it was 4th and 4. The Raiders did have all three of their time outs left and the Steelers had two. The Raiders decided to take the field goal. To me it seems awful. After the field goal you will still need a touchdown albeit no two point conversion this time. You'll have to stop the Steelers quickly, like 3 and out quickly is almost mandatory even with you having all of your time outs left, to have a decent shot at marching down the field again.
What happened in the game was the Steelers were able to get a first down and the Raiders burned all their time outs but were able to get the ball back but on their own 15 with maybe 40 seconds left on the clock and no time outs? I feel like that's the average scenario give or take. You're telling me that's better than going for it on 4th and 4 at the 8/9 yard line?! Even if you're stopped you've still got the Steelers pinned deep in their own territory, still have all your timeouts just like you do after the field goal + kick, and still need a touchdown. The only differences are you need the two point conversion to tie the game when you score the TD whereas in your other miraculous scenario you only need a TD to win.
What burns me the most is the announcers didn't even discuss whether going for it on 4th and 4 was right or not. They simply plodded along 'oh they're going to take the field goal' hum diddily dum. Anyway, enough about the foosball.
Stick
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