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Position of the Week (10/29/23): Dementia test - Rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 3 November 2023, at 5:08 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Week (10/29/23): Dementia test (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 115 11 point match pip: 131 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBAAb--bB-B-b-dab-bA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/10 13/7	eq: -0.174
	Player: Opponent: 46.45% (G:13.70% B:0.49%) 53.55% (G:15.37% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.180...-0.169) - [100.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout2	24/15	eq: -0.224 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 42.58% (G:2.97% B:0.12%) 57.42% (G:2.57% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.228...-0.219) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 10 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 80422712 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 80422172 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I appreciate the responses. The more of these we get, the more that participants will be inspired to initiate their own threads and the more Stick's site will grow.

Frank made the obvious play. He does not have dementia. He does have an appropriate level of suspicion, though.

Tim either has dementia or he is a genius; he correctly made the non-obvious play.

Seven years ago, Stick posted the above position under the subject header Pottle or Nottle?. He showed the XGR++ evaluation, which suggests that running is wrong by .079. As you can see, my 5k rollout indicates that running is an error of "only" .049.

I offer the variant below, which is only 1 pip different. This not only swings the right play, but failing to run becomes a whopper with cheese.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 115 11 point match pip: 132 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---ACBBAAb--bB-B-b-dab-bA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	24/15	eq: -0.239
	Player: Opponent: 41.83% (G:2.97% B:0.09%) 58.17% (G:2.64% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.248...-0.230) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 13/7	eq: -0.404 (-0.165)
	Player: Opponent: 40.59% (G:12.25% B:0.53%) 59.41% (G:22.56% B:0.94%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.415...-0.393) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 80422712 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Week (10/29/23): Dementia test
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 29 October 2023, at 2:21 p.m.
  • Position of the Week (10/29/23): Dementia test
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 30 October 2023, at 12:43 p.m.
  • Position of the Week (10/29/23): Dementia test
    Frank Berger -- Monday, 30 October 2023, at 11:54 p.m.
  • Position of the Week (10/29/23): Dementia test - Rollout
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 3 November 2023, at 5:08 a.m.