BGonline.org Forums

Should Blue hit now? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 4 November 2023, at 8:40 p.m.

In Response To: Should Blue hit now? (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 162 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 132 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-D-C--BdCaA-c-cb-----:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
White owns her 5pt: Hitting is a mistake

1.	Rollout1	15/8	eq: +0.489
	Player: Opponent: 74.16% (G:12.48% B:0.44%) 25.84% (G:3.73% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.484...+0.494) - [100.0%] Duration: 41 minutes 19 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/14* 14/8	eq: +0.453 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 69.89% (G:21.80% B:1.08%) 30.11% (G:5.20% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.446...+0.459) - [0.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 15 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 80422172 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Even though this variant was my idea, the result surprised me. OTB, I would have hit (15/14*/8) instead of 15/9/8 (no hit), judging that the gain from gammons (and backgammons) would surpass the reduction in wins. Evidently, that is not the case.

Below is a near-facsimile. When White owns her 4pt instead of her 5pt, Black's hitting incentive is swung from a "mistake" to "tied." Backgammon is subtle.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 132 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-D-C--BdCaA-c-c-b----:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
White owns her 4pt: Hitting is tied

1.	Rollout1	15/8	eq: +0.491
	Player: Opponent: 74.32% (G:12.30% B:0.48%) 25.68% (G:3.80% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.487...+0.495) - [94.6%] Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.	Rollout1	15/14* 14/8	eq: +0.486 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 70.81% (G:22.03% B:1.22%) 29.19% (G:5.10% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.482...+0.491) - [5.4%] Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78319492 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Should Blue hit now?
  Nack Ballard -- Monday, 30 October 2023, at 2:54 a.m.
  • Should Blue hit now?
    pierrez -- Wednesday, 1 November 2023, at 11:06 a.m.
  • Should Blue hit now? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANT
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 4 November 2023, at 8:40 p.m.