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OLM Wed. July 2nd

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 2 July 2008, at 4:35 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. July 2nd (Stick)

Here I go, thinking again.

25/21 looked pretty auto, but is it really? Stick will not hesitate for even a second (I'd say 'millisecond' but he probably has an overhang) to swat that fly. Our homeboard sucks. Should we try to entrench on the 23-point and wait him out?

If we had a good four to play on our side this argument would have more backing. But no four on our side is that great. (We can't even slot our best remaining point.) Another issue is questionable timing. Besides, Stick does have a quite a few numbers where he'll not hit us loose on the 21-.

OK, go with the first instinct -- 25/21. Now for the deuce.

24/22 is worth a look. It doesn't really pressure Stick much (if any). It's just a good starting spot in case our front back checker gets whacked. OTOH, that's always the double edged sword because it's also a bigger target for Stick'em. Basically a checker on the acepoint has a longer life expectancy than a checker on the 22-point.

On our side, it's between 11/9 and 7/5. Usually I prefer the fast board builder. Screw the "we don't want to leave another blot in our board in case we hit" thought. (No offense intended if someone is going to actually post that sentiment. :) We will have four cover dice if we get lucky enough to swat the evil one. The thing that makes me want to play 11/9 is the overly heavy 11-point, but that's minor compared to quickly seeding our board.

So 24/22 or 7/5? Neither excites me (and that is likely why Stick made it a problem in the first place; well, not for me personally....)

Our position is so defenseless that I don't want to give him even an extra half roll to put us six feet under. Let's stay back on the 24-point.

Finally, let's reconsider 11/9 vs. 7/5. Okay, we've already said 7/5 is better on "general principles", but those get me in trouble way more than they should. If our concern now is just survival, maybe 11/9 is better. We're not likely to be able to even use our homeboard for a while. Getting hit loose on Stick's side is likely. Do we want the extra target? I still think we get enough covers ({1,2,3,6, plus 5/1 with 4's} to make it worth it.

Oops, I didn't notice this match is on the clock.

Summary: 25/21, 7/5.

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