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Boring 62

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Friday, 22 December 2023, at 7:50 a.m.

In Response To: Boring 62 (Dmitriy Obukhov)

I don't know, but my guess is 22/16 8/6. Stepping out dupes White's aces (6/5 and 10/9*) and increases your outfield control in case White tries to run away with a 6. Stepping out also exploits your four-to-two advantage in board strength while White has three blots. You should not be afraid of a fight when you are twice as strong as your oppt. If you get hit, you will have return shots while you have a much stronger board.

Over the course of the past four decades, I have kept my 22pt anchor on countless occasions when I should have played 22/16 with a 6. It may look scary to leave the anchor, but keeping the 22pt anchor long term can be even scarier.

If White makes her 4pt with 62 63 64 22 33, you have a chance to escape your last back guy with a 6, which would complete your escape work, establish ownership of the outfield and give you a great chance to eventually contain and prime White' back checker. If you don't get him out, White's 2pt blot makes it tougher for Blue to successfully attack your 22pt blot.

If White rolls 42 43 32, you will be happy to get the ace shot. If White rolls 61 52 you will be happy to not be hit on your 8pt.

Looks like your 8pt blot is more of a target than a builder. Your 53 is duped with the blot on your 8pt. Playing 8/6 gets rid of a liability and gives you good aces. You are not anxious to cover the 8pt because owning the 8pt and 2pt simultaneously is an inefficient use of your limited force of 15 checkers, in violation of Magriel's 6-Apart Rule. They cannot both be part of the same 6prime.

Owning the 13pt is good in this position. It gives you a great 66 and 33 and gives Blue a lousy 66. Your chance of rolling 66 and Blue's chance of rolling 66 are both much greater than 1/36 when you take into account that each will have several rolls to get it.

Weaver's Theorem states that the chance of your rolling 66 at least once over the next several rolls is roughly several/36.

There is a subtle vig in my being wrong. It lets people know that I do not consult XG before giving my opinion.

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