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Position of the Day 11-24-23 - Rollout + Variant

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 31 December 2023, at 9:57 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 11-24-23 (Stick)

It's always hard to have a take when you're on the bar against the opp's best five point board or likely to be on the bar versus the same formation when you have multiple blots hanging about. One detail that comes up sometimes though that makes a difference and can push you towards taking is the opponent has his ace point slotted and has no direct covers for it, see variant below. With this setup when hit we have a lot more life after death than we'd normally have.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 61
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BbFbE-A-A---------bbbbba-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.92% (G:24.67% B:0.86%) 71.43% (G:24.66% B:0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.08% (G:9.57% B:0.28%) 28.57% (G:9.47% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.575 +1.173
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.703 (-0.225)ą0.007 (+0.696..+0.710)
Redouble/Take:+0.928ą0.019 (+0.909..+0.947)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.072)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24638962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds

Variant
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 61
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BbFbE-A-A---------bcbbb--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.01% (G:25.43% B:0.82%) 74.53% (G:25.24% B:0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.99% (G:7.49% B:0.20%) 25.47% (G:7.44% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities +0.666 +1.349
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.793 (-0.207)±0.006 (+0.787..+0.799)
Redouble/Take:+1.162 (+0.162)±0.017 (+1.144..+1.179)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24638962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds

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