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The backgame paid off! Now what? (Note match score)

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Monday, 29 April 2024, at 11:18 a.m.

In Response To: The backgame paid off! Now what? (Note match score) (Timothy Chow)

If White somehow slips away, there is a high chance White wins also a gammon.
There is a wide-spread misconception in the cummunity that at this very 4a-5a score the gammon value for the 4a-player is much higher than the gammon value for the 5a-player on a two cube. However, in reality the gammon value for the 4a-player is ~0.81 versus a gammon value of ~0.77 for the 5a-player.
The two factors mentioend above should dissuade the 4a-player to play too agressively for the gammon, if gammons are possible both ways.
That all being said, I do not know which side wins how many gammons and who wins more gammons in this position. On top of that, I am sure that checker play very much differs whether the cube is on two on our side or on 8 with the match on the line. It is a difficult problem.

I think it is not too good. And since I don't think White has the minimum ~%25 cubeless neccessary to take, I vote for redouble/pass.

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