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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 4 May 2024, at 4:04 a.m.

In Response To: Genius time again! (Timothy Chow)

The double slot certainly loses more gammons, but as far as Blue's winning chances are concerned, the situation is complicated. If White dances then Blue will be happy he played 6/5 6/4 rather than 6/3. If White hits, then sometimes Blue will regret having played 6/5 6/4 (e.g., if White rolls 42 from the bar, then she is forced to break her outfield point, and Blue would rather not be on the bar himself), but not always: sometimes it will improve Blue's timing. On balance, the rollout below favors the double slot, even taking the extra gammon losses into account.

In the variant below, Blue has an extra incentive to not get hit, because White has a vulnerable blot in the outfield.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 88
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB--E---------b--cdBBbc-:2:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.406
Player:
Opponent:		36.12% (G:4.10% B:0.09%)
63.88% (G:30.83% B:1.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.414...-0.398) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout16/3eq: -0.463 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		28.46% (G:3.08% B:0.08%)
71.54% (G:17.31% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.469...-0.457) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 97
Unlimited Game
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB--E--------ab--cdBBbb-:2:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.193
Player:
Opponent:		40.91% (G:12.43% B:0.23%)
59.09% (G:28.31% B:1.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.197...-0.189) - [87.6%]
Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout16/3eq: -0.196 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		37.31% (G:8.69% B:0.15%)
62.69% (G:17.02% B:0.47%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.200...-0.193) - [12.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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