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Position of the Day 04-15-24

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 7 May 2024, at 3:27 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-15-24 (Stick)

Blue leaves a blot about half the time and white hits it about 1/3 of the time. Of course, white doesn't always win when she hits, so maybe 10% GWC due to shot equity (as opposed to the ~16% if hits were fatal for blue).

White also has something around 20% GWC from the race, so her GWC should be somewhere in the upper twenties, which is enough to take.

Is it a cube? I count 20 rolls that run the blot to safety, but those don't necessarily lose the market. But they are all large rolls and since white is around the point of last take they will be if she rolls low number. So, give blue half his 20 as market losers. Nine is enough to cube *if there's no really bad sequences* - but there are bad sequences so it's probably not a cube.

Against a human, I'll ship it since some will get the take decision wrong (maybe I have). I'll say ND/T is the bot verdict.

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