I'm experiencing something strange...I can't find my original "droids" post, nor Peever's response to it. Were they inadvertently deleted somehow?
Anyway, one thing that is psychologically not so easy to do is to recognize when a change of game plan is needed. This is a priming battle, but Blue has the opportunity for what is effectively a tempo hit that takes away one of White's dice. Left to her own devices, White will likely make an excellent point next turn; pointing on the 1pt interferes with those plans. If White's priming threat were less serious, then there would less motivation for the tempo hit (see variant):
           
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 137
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---CCBB--AbCa-abbcc---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 5/1 | eq: -0.114 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.17% (G:18.78% B:0.40%)
55.83% (G:13.52% B:0.68%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.127...-0.101) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 11/7 | eq: -0.246 (-0.131) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.79% (G:11.81% B:0.48%)
57.21% (G:13.18% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.261...-0.230) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 137
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---CCBB--AcC---bccc---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 5/1 | eq: -0.144 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.63% (G:15.15% B:0.18%)
55.37% (G:13.05% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.150...-0.138) - [96.5%]
Duration: 22 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 11/7 | eq: -0.152 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.84% (G:11.53% B:0.35%)
54.16% (G:13.14% B:0.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.159...-0.146) - [3.5%]
Duration: 22 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release