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who is favoured by contact?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 17 May 2024, at 1:43 a.m.

In Response To: who is favoured by contact? (Timothy Chow)

Race cube formulae are not that hard to calculate. iSight is pretty straightforward to apply here - add a pip for the spare on the deuce, two pips for the open 5 and 6 points. After running, both sides need four crossovers to start bearing off, so no adjustment there. Blue has no wastage.

After subtracting 24 pips to get a pipcount of 63-72, add three to white's total for 66-72. In my last post I lazily said it was at the point of last take, using the 10% rule, but the rule is 10% plus one so it should be in the middle of the doubling window or about 24%

If it were 35% I'd run for it. But there are few gammons here so what's to lose by sticking around?

In general terms, usually maintaining contact when behind in the race favors the trailer more than the leader. If there are gammons afoot, this changes, but as a general rule, if gammons are few and the race is not close, maintaining contact favors the trailer more than the leader. I'm sure there are exceptions (and you probably have a folder with a dozen of examples stashed away) but that's the smart way to bet.

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