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Rollout + situation on next turn

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 23 May 2024, at 12:46 p.m.

In Response To: Endgame cube action from the bar (Timothy Chow)

I knew the first reference position posted by ah_clem and so I though it wouldn't be a double until I entered. OTB, I didn't pause to think about the difference a blot in my opponent's board would make, and it now makes sense to me that that would make it a double.

What's more surprising to me is that the bot thinks I had an initial double on the next turn (see below).

By the way , for those who are wondering about the centered cube, OTB this was the first game of a 7-point match, and there was a point earlier in the match where XG says I missed a small double (before I became too good).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 44
Unlimited Game
pip: 33
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--D----------------baccbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 71.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 28.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.435 +0.869
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.529 (-0.150)±0.008 (+0.521..+0.537)
Double/Take:+0.679±0.009 (+0.670..+0.688)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.321)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Next turn:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 38
Unlimited Game
pip: 33
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--D----------------b-cbcbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 66.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 33.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.338 +0.656
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.402 (-0.054)±0.007 (+0.395..+0.409)
Double/Take:+0.456±0.014 (+0.442..+0.471)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.544)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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