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clarification request

Posted By: Jim Stutz
Date: Monday, 24 June 2024, at 12:31 a.m.

In Response To: My Answer (Bob Koca)

Bob wrote: >For an 11 point match I estimate 51.14% using choice 1 and 50.86% using choice 2.<

I get that XG rates a game-starting opening roll of 3-1 at ~51.14% when 11a-11a, and I can also see that the bot rates an opening 4-2 at ~+.89% in the same situation at the same score. But I don't get how you arrive at the conclusion that the OPTION to play an opening roll of 4-2 at the start of ANY game the player chooses in this particular 11-pt. match has exactly the same +EV as an opening 4-2 at 11a-11a. Please explain -- thanks!

I really enjoyed musing about this worthy problem, BTW. But my (unsupported) intuition does not comport with your high-confidence answer -- so I'm looking forward to learning something.

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