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Bot Battle #118

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 10 January 2026, at 6:55 p.m.

In Response To: Bot Battle #118 (Jason Lee)

It's going to be very difficult for White to win this race no matter how badly Blue muddies his position. So does Blue play for a freak gammon?

Status quo has Blue leading 2-away, 7-away which is 84% MWC. Losing 2 takes it to 4-away, 5-away or 58% MWC. Win a gammon for the match (100% MWC). Risk 26 to gain 16 so gammon price is 16/26 ~0.6 which is higher than canonical ($-game) 0.5. Thus going for gammons has a bit more value than typical. (There could be gammon killing recubes so that dilutes this a bit.)

I think 4/0, 3/2 would be right if white was in the bearoff (i.e. no gammon chances for Blue).

5/1, 5/4 leads to {33,44,55,66} bearing off four checkers next turn, but 5/0 gets at least three off with those rolls and still leaves no more than four checkers remaining after that. (It's splitting hairs between these two.)

5/0.

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