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Position of the Day 01-31-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 2 February 2026, at 2:57 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-31-26 (Stick)

How does White win this game? The earliest non-negligible chance is: a) Blue fails to hit loose, b) White runs into the outfield, c) Blue misses the shot. This happens about (8/36)*(11/36)*(~2/3) ~ 59/1296 ~ 4.5%.

White has to win about 18% of games in other ways. Assume Blue closes White out before White can do anything with his homeboard checkers. How likely is White to pull out a win then? A perfect Blue bearoff vs. a fully crunched White position (with five off and one on the bar) gives White ~21% cubeless wins. Neither of those ideal bearoff situations exists here, and White's penalty for non-ideal distribution appears to be considerably worse than Blue's. I don't think it's as much as 15% wins in those cases, but even if it is that's less than 19.5% cubeless wins.

There are a few other winning scenarios for White but this is feeling like a pass to me.

R+P.

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