| |
BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 02-13-26
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 02-13-26 (Stick)
Date: Monday, 16 February 2026, at 3:44 p.m.
Since 17/15 is the move with the deuce, the only question is whether or not to continue 15/14 or fill the homeboard with 2/1.
If White rolls a doublet in either of his next two rolls it doesn't matter since one of {33,44,55,66} is required to save the gammon next turn either way. Similarly, if Blue rolls 7 or more pips next turn he'll be guaranteed to bear off the following roll.
That leaves 13 rolls which might make a difference: {21,11,31,41,51,32,42}.
The breakeven situation appears to be the choice between being on the 11-pt and having the acept covered or being on the 10-pt with a naked acept. In that case White will (if given the chance) bear off with 23 numbers regardless of the ace move this turn.
If you're worse than this (only 21 is relevant), you're better off not filling the ace this turn. In all other cases filling the acept is either breakeven (the case just mentioned in the previous paragraph) or better having the acept slotted.
It's worth noting that except for that 21 anomaly, with any other 1x roll you'll have the decision next turn of filling the acept if you don't do so this turn. (Sidelight, you should in all those cases.)
So the meaningful follow-up rolls are down to 21, 32, and 42.
If 21 is your next roll, you were better off having played 15/14 by 4 rolls (only 17 upcoming misses compared to 21). If you roll 32 you will have been better off playing 2/1 this turn by 4 rolls (7 misses vs. 11 misses). At this point the decision is a cointoss. BUT the kicker is when you roll 42. Having filled the acept only misses with 21 (2/36 numbers) on the last roll whereas 15/14 costs you 10/36! With the latter play the only ace that will bear off is 11.
Final answer: 17/15, 2/1.
P.S. Does this analysis help in future decisions? I think the 11-pt filled ace vs. 10-pt empty ace being the fence sitting situation is pretty relevant.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.