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Position of the Day 02-16-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 17 February 2026, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-16-26 (Stick)

Although there are three candidates for the ace, I pare those down to 6/5*. (There will be time to get off the blocked 23-pt and among possibly other concerns, 13/12* doesn't leave Blue a good 5 to finish his turn.)

Now the choice is 13/8 or 11/6. The former maintains the backstop (holds the point 6-away from a homeboard blot) whereas the latter gives Blue more ways the cover the 5-pt when missed (with the liability of another blot and more immediate shots for White).

11/6 looks prettier than 13/8. Is it worth the extra blot, loss of the backstop, and five extra hitting numbers for White {24,34,22} which includes four double hits {54,56}?

At first glance it appears that the pretty play (11/6) is more likely to get the 5-pt covered next turn, but is that true? After the ugly play and a White miss, 27 numbers {all 3's,all 6's,21,51,42,44} cover. (Admittedly some of those rolls leave subsequent blots.) Meanwhile the pretty play, when White misses, covers with {all 1's,all 3's,all 6's,42,44} adding to 30 rolls. But then there's that i-word (ok, w-word in this case), when.... Let's do the two roll arithmetic to find how often Blue makes his 5-pt next turn: (21/36)*(27/36) = 567/1296; (17/36)*(30/36) = 510/1296. (For the nitpickers, yes, 33 makes the 5-pt in either case when White hits.)

The pretty play loses out. 6/5*, 13/8.

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