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Position of the Day 02-20-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 22 February 2026, at 7:29 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-20-26 (Stick)

Let's compare this to the reference position that occurs where White splits with 64, Blue rolls 55 making the two inner board points (one on head), and White fans. That's a moderate pass -- around 1.05 if memory serves me.

White's position is similar to the refpos, probably slightly better for her since being on the 17-pt instead of 18-pt could be an easier upcoming safety move.

Blue's position looks considerably worse. The blot on the 5-pt is typically double edged but worse than typical here since only 6/36 rolls cover. Only seven in the zone compared to the refpos's 8, and the 'missing' checker is back in opp's homeboard, making the pipcount even instead of in the lead.

Altogether the sum renders the Take crystal clear and the Double in doubt. Let's look at the best sequences for Blue: hit on the 8-pt, fan = (15/36)*(9/36) = 135/1296 ~ 10%. Add to that cover+fan (6/36)*(16/36) = 96/1296 ~ 7% more. Finally consider the farside hit + fan (are those market losers?) (4/36)*(9/36) = 1/36 ~ 3%. Adding it all up that's only about 19% ML's. There may be a few more such as 42 (two more builders) + fan but we're not getting to 25% and the O'Hagan Doubling Rule threshold.

N+T.

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