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Who cares VI ?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 2 March 2026, at 5:05 p.m.

In Response To: Who cares VI ? (pierrez)

If you hit two, when White fans you win and when she enters (hitting) with a single 6 you still win somewhere in the 40-45% of those games. (You'll be 59::41 favorite to roll the first 6 and subsequently win about 2/3 of those.) So (25/36) + 0.4(11/36) ~ 82% wins, so 18% wins for White.

If you play 13/8*, 6/5 White still wins around 10% when she fans, maybe 90% when she enters and hits, 80% when she rolls 66, and 15% entering and safetying the midpoint checker. (25/36)*10% + (4/36)*90% + (1/36)*80% + (6/36)*15%. Adding that up: (2.5 + 3.6 + 0.8 + 0.9)/36 = 7.8/36 ~22% wins for White.

Hit two! 13/8*, 13/12*.

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