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Position of the Day 02-27-26 - TG or no TG

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 4 March 2026, at 4:39 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-27-26 - TG or no TG (Stick)

Let's start by looking at Blue's immediate rolls:

Hit on 4-pt: {4x,52,61,63,33,66,22,11,31} = 23 rolls. Hit in White's outfield: {21,32,53,62} = 8 rolls. (These could alternately be used to create more homeboard builders.) Neither of the above: {51,55,65} = 5 rolls.

White's subsequent best rolls (unless Blue makes his 4-pt): {4x,11,22,33} = 15 rolls. But how many of those are even Takes?

If Blue waits to redouble, what are his worst sequences? Hitting loose (20 rolls) followed by White's 44 certainly provides a shock wave, but that only happens about 1.5% of the time. Also bad for Blue are a loose hit followed by {11,22,33}. Now we're up to 6%.

What if Blue doesn't hit at all and White rolls 4x. Is that a Take? Even White's 41 roll -- establishing two anchors -- doesn't look like much of a Take.

If I thought there was a 5% or more chance White would Take now I'd be strongly tempted to redouble but otherwise I'm playing on.

TG,P.

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