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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 03-16-26 - More TG or not TG
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 03-16-26 - More TG or not TG (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 22 March 2026, at 7:18 p.m.
A couple things that might be worth committing to memory:
If player on roll has two dice to gain what he wants (here either ace or 3) and opp has only one die to accomplish her goal (ace here), the probability that roller gets his first is 80%. (If game trailer rolls first, she's 44%.)
Another thing worth remembering (seems easy, but these things have a way of getting fuzzy with time...): both players have closed homeboards (that's 12+12 = 24 checkers accounted for so far) one player has a single checker on the bar and two in the outfield (where? see below) while the other has the perfect closed board bearoff -- a spare each on the 6-, 5-, and 4-pts...
Game trailer loses 3% of games. Of the remaining 97%, if game trailer's outfield spares are on the 18-pt then half of those (50%) are gammons.
Move those two outfield checkers up to the midpoint and the fraction of games won ending in gammons is half of above -- 25%.
Make game leader's bearoff structure worse -- spares on the 2-,3-,4-pts -- and subtract 5% from each of the gammon fraction values above.
Those tidbits should help some for this problem. There's one other thing that catches my eye -- the location of the cube. (I'm not talking about Jacoby!) If Blue hangs on to it and plays for gammon, White won't be able to snag some extra wins (or extra equity) sending the cube over. This *might* have an impact on the decision.
(Since I've seen some XG results of different positions from working all this out I'm not going to put in an opinion on what is best here. Stick has to find something else to nitpick me on, like maybe this bad use of the English language...)
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