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Position of the Day 03-17-26 - A Study

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 23 March 2026, at 12:10 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-17-26 - A Study (Stick)

19 rolls contain 7 or fewer pips. Blue will stay back in those cases, giving White 12 immediate hitting rolls. (19/36)*(12/36) = 228/1296. That's about 17%. Will there be enough repeaters to get up to a Take? How about a second chance: (19/36)*(24/36)*(19/36)*12/36 = (19*19/1296)*(2/3)*(1/3) ~ (360/1296)*(2/9) ~ 28%*22% ~ 6.2% so White wins are up to around 23%. However, gammons, although scarce, are in Blue's favor. I'll guess about 4% of games end in gammons for Blue.

Looks really close on the T/P decision. White's cube ownership equity may be a bit less than normal given that her redoubles usually occur after hitting (and losing the market).

R+P.

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