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Position of the Day 03-21-26 - On the way to a 16 cube
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 03-21-26 - On the way to a 16 cube (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 26 March 2026, at 8:33 p.m.
Centered Cube -- Blue has only 4 unhelpful rolls: {52,62}. Everything else either hits on White's side or makes a point in his homeboard, sometimes more than one and sometimes hitting in the process. But White temporarily leads the race and has a 3::1 homeboard advantage. The Take seems right. Are there enough market losers? Those farside hits helps free up White's ugly stack as well as bringing another builder for making anchors. The double feels a bit early, IMO.
ND+T.
Recube to 4 This one is clearly the weirdest of these four. Blue will pound away (with only the 21 roll missing this turn). Some future White aces create a 3rd blot. I'm unsure if this is a Take and will just be guessing there, so the redouble seems clear.
R+P.
Recube to 8 I used pencil and paper (call me a cheater if you want) to see that White will hit a shot this upcoming roll 23% of the time. Blue won't be home free even when that doesn't happen short of rolling {44,55,66}. Thus the Take looks clear. On those 77% immediate misses, some will have lost the market while others will be timely R+P situations. A lot of volatility and Blue leads; feels like a cube.
R+T
Recube to 16 It makes sense to me to look at the race and adjust from there. Benjamin's Ultimate Racing Formula, anyone? Blue's looks easier so I start there. Fastimate says 54 + 4 + 5*2 + 2*1 + 2*(1/2) + 1.2 = 72.2 Effective Pips (EP). For White's homeboard, "Count Your Misses": 7*7 + 1 + 1*0.2 = 50.2. Add 25 pips for the checker on the bar and another 18.5 hyperpips (expected loss from fanning) and it's up to 93.2 EP. *On average*, with no contact help for White, this looks like a huge pass (assuming I've done all this properly...). Let's look at a positive case for White -- Blue rolls average (62) and White enters 45. Now the EPC is 64.2 :: 66.2 and not only an easy Take but NR (I think). That was pretty fortuitous, though, and White is still significantly behind. I'm going with:
R+P.
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