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Position of the Day 03-25-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 31 March 2026, at 3:03 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-25-26 (Stick)

I think for O'Hagan's Doubling Rule (ODR) you're supposed to subtract sequences (your roll X opp's roll) which make you a clear underdog. {62,63,64,65}X{24 White hits} fit that description. (8/36)*(24/36} = (8/36)*(2/3) means you must subtract about 5 1/3 from the 11, leaving a net of 5 2/3.

55 followed by moderate to small White rolls could lose the market. Add another 1/2 ML's and we're still 6 1/6.

What about gammons? When Blue hits he wins between 20% and 25% gammons. (White gets a few, too, but not very many.) Add ~11*(25%)*1 = 4 and it seems like we're there (~10 net ML's). "But wait, there's more!"

Of the 16 Blue rolls we've yet to address, {44,33,22} advance but the remaining 13 stay and except for the 32 roll, break the homeboard leaving the position up-for-grabs. In none of those will Blue have the pipcount lead (noting White gets 4 pips for being on roll). In most of those (32 and 66 being exceptions) Blue breaks the pretty homeboard.

This may be more detail than even John goes into OtB (guess we'll find out...), but I'm not reaching for that cube quite yet.

ND+T

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-25-26
  Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2026, at 2:24 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-25-26
    ah_clem -- Monday, 30 March 2026, at 6:10 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 03-25-26
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 31 March 2026, at 12:46 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-25-26
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 31 March 2026, at 12:30 a.m.
    • Position of the Day 03-25-26
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 31 March 2026, at 1:53 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-25-26
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 31 March 2026, at 3:03 a.m.