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Position of the Day 04-09-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 11 April 2026, at 6:11 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-09-26 (Stick)

White has a surprisingly high (IMO) number of rolls that either take off no checkers or leave a position with fewer than 9 rolls that bear off -- 15 of those by my count. Even with Blue's worst roll (21) those look like market losers. And some of Blue's rolls don't even allow White a second chance, so around 50% of the time the market is lost.

Now there's the thought that White might not even have a Take. How often does White get off in two rolls (or less, since 66 does so in one)? Any 6 plus {22,33,44,55,66} is a good start. Let's break that into {61,62,63,64,22} and {65,66,33,44,55} and say 2/3 of the first set and 100% of the second set: (2/3)*(9/36) + 6/36 = 12/36. But Blue gets a couple cracks at it first. {33,44,55,66} in the first chance and {22,33,44,55,66} in the second chance (OK, sometimes 11 works and very occasionally 22 doesn't, but I'm ignoring those.)

So 12/36 gets discounted by 4/36 + 5/36 - (4/36)*(5/36) ~ 9/36 - 1.5% ~ 23.5%. That's still above 9/36 and White will occasionally be able to recube. Also, we said "for a start" so there are other scenarios that can win which we've yet to count.

R+T.

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