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Position of the Day 04-09-26 - more XG info

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 13 April 2026, at 2:09 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-09-26 - Rollout (Stick)

Here's some more info from XG. Note: XG uses a database to get the cGWC (aka CPW) at 64.14%. However, that doesn't give cube actions so it has to use other methods for that determination. Here are XG's eval and mini-rollout conclusions on the cube actions, where I use a plus sign to indicate No Redouble and minus sign to indicate Redouble:

1-ply (-0.043), 2-ply (-0.060), 3-ply (-0.012), 4-ply (+0.027), 5-ply (+0.008), 6-ply (+0.009), 7-ply (+0.009), XG-Roller (+0.002), XG-Roller+ (-0.006), XG-Roller++ (+0.010).

So you have to get to 4-ply eval before it prefers the No Redouble, and even XGR+ recommends the Redouble. 4-ply eval is pretty far off in magnitude from Stick's 3-ply Rollout result whereas 5-ply, 6-ply, 7-ply and XGR++ nail it. It's worth noting that (AFAIK) the mini-rollout results (XGR, XGR+, XGR++) have statistical uncertainties since they use repeated trial simulations, just like full rollouts, so doing them again independently could give different results.

Using XG's Dice feature, a whopping 47.5% of games result in market loss, although magnitude of market loss matters, and that's something that is hard if not impossible to work out over-the-board.

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