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Position of the Day 04-17-26 - Score!

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 20 April 2026, at 1:41 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-17-26 - Score! (Stick)

If Blue plays 4/2*(2), 3/1(2), getting hit immediately (11/36) can lose and there are a few repeaters -- (4/36)*(12/36)*(11/36) ~ 1% of games which also put White in good shape but far from gin. Call that 31.6% hits.

Ripping two with 4/2*/0(2) gets hit immediately 11/36, allows White to stop on the 23-pt with any deuce other than 21 (9 rolls), and then leave a shot with any non-ace/non-doublet (20/36). (9/36)*(20/36)*(11/36) = 55/1296 ~ 4% There's also White's 33 (1/36) followed by the similar 20/36 and a few other crumbs. Let's call that 36% hits.

If that were all of the concern then the latter looks clearly better -- (36/30.6) = 6/5.1 ~ 1.16. However, the latter play gets two checkers off which is something like 18% more wins for Blue after getting hits.

4/2*/0(2).

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