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Position of the Day 04-24-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 26 April 2026, at 4:35 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-24-26 (Stick)

Am I taking as White? Pipcount lead and stronger homeboard. A lot of the loose hits give quite a few return shots from the bar. Gammon losses aren't plentiful, in fact gammon wins (as a fraction of total wins) appear higher for White than Blue. Definitely taking this.

Is it a Double? Let's break Blue's rolls into three groups:

Best: {66,62,61,22,11} = 7 rolls. Middling: {65,63,55,53,33,21} = 10 rolls. Might work out: {64,54,51,42,41,32,31} = 14 rolls. Sure glad I didn't double: {52,44,43} = 5 rolls.

A lot seems to be riding on White's response after getting hit. Many of those return hitting chances are in the 10/36 to 11/36 probability range. Almost every hit gives White at least a joker return hit. Anchoring with 32 is good for White, although not what I'd call 'great'. All this makes applying ODR difficult for me.

Seems like another case of both sides being able to see enough the optimistic paths to victory.

D+T.

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