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BGonline.org Forums
Bot Battle #135
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Bot Battle #135 (Jason Lee)
Date: Tuesday, 28 April 2026, at 3:43 p.m.
Does anyone pass this? Mr. Woolsey hasn't been helping much lately. Time for JOH to pull his weight.
Hit+fan is a market loser. (15/36)*(25/36) = 375/1296 ~ 29%. So far, so good. 55 and 66 probably do as well, so we're up to 34.5%. That's the end of the good news.
{61,62,63,51,52,53} = 12/36 (= 1/3) rolls leave a direct shot. Figure those get hit 1/3 of the time. Subtract 11% and we're down to 23.5% market losers. 7 Blue rolls remain unaccounted for.
33 and Blue gets a decent looking bearoff. White is on roll and down 11 pips (with worse bearoff structure). White's glad she took but still trails. 65 is similar but not quite as good for Blue.
{21,32} are real dogs. Penalizing these half (i.e. subtract 5.5% instead of 11%) and we're down to 18% market losers. This isn't even an initial double if I applied ODR correctly. But this is a redouble opportunity so we need more, and the matchscore plays a role, I think making the redouble somewhat less valuable than at $-play. Doesn't look close.
NR+T.
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