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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 04-29-26
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 04-29-26 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 1 May 2026, at 8:17 p.m.
Take seems clear since naively the complement of Blue's best rolls (all hits plus 66,55) is 20 rolls and White should win those (cubeless) a bit less than half the time. There are gammon losses but also some White wins after getting hit.
Let's start with Robertie's DR: give Blue an above average roll, but not best. 54. Give White a subsequent bad roll, but not worst. 42. After that sequence will White have a Take? No. So Double.
How about O'Hagan's DR? Start with Blue's 14 hits. 25% of those will be fans which are significant market losers. That's only 3.5 clear ML's so far. Of the other 10.5, White will get about 6 pips when entering, so that averages out to a pipcount gain of 9 + 9 - 6 = 12 pips. That would be a Take in a pure race but White hasn't escaped so let's say 2/3 of those will be passes. That's 2*10.5/3 = 7 more ML's and we're up to 10.5/36 total ML's. Add Blue's {55,66} and now we're at 12.5 ML's. Finally we need to subtract the 2 roll sequences where Blue will be losing the game. Those are from White's immediate rehits (generously call that 0.5/36) as well as White's big rolls when Blue fails to get one of his 16 best. 44 doesn't safety so let's say White's 55 & 66 plus 1/3 of White's {33,65}. That's (20/36)*(2 + 3/3)/36 = (1/12 * 20)/36 ~ 1.5/36. That's still a net of 11/36 net ML's and we only need 9/36, so as long as we're not off too much with the estimate this sounds like a Double.
D+T
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