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Position of the Day 05-11-26 - Ducks

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 15 May 2026, at 3:05 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-11-26 - Ducks (Stick)

Three plays come to mind:

Bull by the Horns: 6/4*(2), 6/2. Loses 7/36 immediately, plus (6/36)*(21/36)*w where 'w' are White's wins when Blue fails to return hit (WAG is w = 5/6) ==> ~ (252 + 105)/1296 = 357/1296 ~27% immediate cubeless losses. Short of that it looks like R+P for the win. And some of the 27% aren't losses BUT there are gammons in there too.

Poison Ivy (don't touch!): 11/7(2) takes 13 pip lead with a 4-block.

Ugly dilly duckling: 6/4*(2), 5/3(2) with pipcount lead 12 + 9 + H - 4 where 'H' are hyperpips coming from White's fans. H = 88/27 or just over 3. That's a 20 pip lead and no immediate shot vulnerability. This also leaves four points with builders to make either 4-pt or 5-pt plus oodles of P&P rolls if White enters high.

Ugly duckling looks better than Poison Ivy cubeless, and here with Blue *owning* the cube even better than that. Is it better than the 73% - G/2 (R+P - 1/2 the gammon losses) wins after BbtH?

Cube ownership looks massive here so I'm going the slow and ugly route. I recall a Robertie-ism (rewritten/paraphrased): "if you own the cube, beware of putting the game on the line trying to win on one big, risky play".

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