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Position of the Day 05-20-26 - Cube Decision AtS

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 27 May 2026, at 3:05 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-20-26 - Cube Decision AtS (Stick)

Let's start by assuming neither side will win a gammon and review that assumption later. If White passes she'll have 50% MWC. Taking and winning @ 75%, taking and losing @ 43%. So the downside is (50 - 43)% and the entire range is (75 - 43)%. Divide those two to get the dead cube takepoint of 7/32 ~ 22% cGWC. (Note this is below the 25% dead cube takepoint at $-play. Advantage White.)

But the cube isn't dead, and if White can turn the game around, Blue, with the auto rewhip to 8, will need at least 25% MWC, which is what he'll have if he passes the 4-cube. (Again, note that at $-play the gammonless live cube takepoint would be 21-22% unless it's late in the bearoff. A second advantage to White.) With perfect cube efficiency (i.e. if White can recube exactly when Blue has 25% cGWC) then her live cube takepoint for the current 2-cube decision is lowered by 25%, to ~16.5%. Realistically it's more like a reduction of 0.7*25%, translating to 18% live cube takepoint for White on this 2-cube. (As before, compare to 21-22% live cube takepoint for $, assuming no gammons for either side.)

White will blot immediately with {65,66} and 55 is ugly. 21-pt holding games with a race deficit <24 pips are typically $-takes unless Blue can play comfortably bringing the position home. (I'll let the author of a book on this subject correct me if I'm wrong, and I'm sure he'll relish the opportunity.:) On top of that, White's position is very strong, with a great homeboard, good positioning to make the 7-pt, and quite a bit of timing.

As far as (unlikely) gammons, I think those favor White as well. I'm pretty sure Michi calls this 4-away, 5-away "the stupid score" due to it favoring the leader for so many situations. It should be valuable to estimate White's cGWC for this kind of position although probably not necessary given all of the above. I"ll WAG 24%. Does Blue even have market losers? {22,33,44}, maybe, and there could be a few others. But how big are those market losers, anyway?

ND+T.

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