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Make up your mind VII

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 13 June 2026, at 10:23 p.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind VII (pierrez)

Blue can win the race from 7 down but only about 35% to 36% of the time. And 10/36 Blue gets another chance to hit, although the race is even closer then so it would still be a decision. The big question is "should Blue hit now"?

First off, I don't see White doubling this after the hit since it's possibly (likely?) a Beaver. (Kauder Paradox, anyone?) White will hit 55.5% of the time but if not I don't think White can take since every subsequent White roll covers one of his HB points (and 44 joker covers both). If it is a Take it looks to be close to a perfectly cube efficient double. It's looking to me that the hit is best.

14/9*, 14/8.

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