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Bad Beat Backgammon

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 18 June 2026, at 7:46 p.m.

In Response To: Bad Beat Backgammon (Stick)

165,888 variance reduced rolled out trials at 1-ply play and cube say 0.0031% games end in backgammon for White. Those are cubeless numbers. Take the reciprical and it's about 1 time every 3200 games played from here. Cubeful it's less since not all games go to completion.

I'll mis-quote John O'Hagan: "so it wasn't quite zero?" (Stated after he was told of someone else's bad beat in a match where the mourner said his chance of losing was less than 1%.)

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