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Position of the Day 06-19-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 24 June 2026, at 3:11 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-19-26 (Stick)

All Blue needs is a 3,4, or 6 die.... Oh, and he has to enter. Any roll containing an ace or deuce fails to meet the initial objective. Toss 55 into that mix. Did I mention the four rolls that stay on the bar?

But White still has to perform, and only 11/36 of the time does she do that. Thus the good sequences for White are (21/36)*(11/36) = 231/1296 ~18%, and those still aren't game winners.

As typical in these types of late hit games, gammons are one-sided and they seem to sneak in there more than expected (at least my expectations). We haven't addressed all scenarios, either, just the common short-term ones. Note White wins ~6% even on Blue's perfect closeout. What's becoming clear (and it was at least fuzzy from first view) is that this is a redouble, even if only according to Mr. Woolsey.

Short of resorting to a coin flip, I'm going with a concept Jason and I came up with (not saying we're the first, though): "If one of the Take or Pass is a big error, which one is more likely?" Mulling that over, I think the coin flip might have the better chance of being right this time.

R+T

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