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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 06-20-26
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 06-20-26 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 26 June 2026, at 7:29 p.m.
Kit's Backgammon Reference Positions, volume 1 addresses these kinds of situations, although there are a lot of variations that can crop up, such as this one. Usually White needs to be closer in the race than this, though. Still, Blue has a tricky minefield to traverse.
Let's do a bit of calculation to see if we can glean some insight into what is going on here. I think White's main winning route is to hit a fly shot from the bar. Assume she gets 4/36 chances at that for the next three rolls. That *doesn't* happen (32/36)^3 = (8/9)^3 = 512/729 ~70%. So it *does* happen 1 - 0.70 = 30% of the time. Now, what about gammons? Well, both sides can use those. I think if White gets closed out efficiently here without ever moving, about half her losses will be gammons. But those closeouts are probably tough to pull off and they won't always be efficient (meaning with good spare distribution).
This is feeling like a Take to me but even if this is a Take (am I sure? No, so apply WDR) there are market losers at every turn.
R+T.
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