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BGonline.org Forums
Bot Battle #153
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Bot Battle #153 (Jason Lee)
Date: Thursday, 23 July 2026, at 5:21 p.m.
Although some people have the Gammon Prices memorized :), I don't so let's calculate it. If the status quo is a loss on the 2-cube, Blue would have ~11% MWC at 6-away Crawford. So risking a gammon puts that 11% up for grabs. Winning (cube staying at 2) and Blue will be trailing 4-away 3-away which is (rounded) 43% MWC. Compared to the status quo that is a gain of 32%. Thus White's Gammon Price is 11%/32% or right around 1/3, less than the $-game Gammon Price of 1/2.
White can cash with 89% cGWC but she's not there yet, and without calculating, the realistic doubling point is likely pretty close to that so even after 22/21 I don't see the cube coming yet.
Another thing to keep in mind: Blue can advance the back checker to the 16-pt with a single die whether he stays on the 22-pt or steps up. Stepping up does allow Blue to step out with either a 5 or 6 die. That might help make 22/21 right. 11 plays a bit better on Blue's side if Blue steps up. That's probably worth 0.01 or 0.02 by itself.
White won't be leaving a shot this turn, either direct or indirect. However she might want to start the 22-pt if Blue steps up, otherwise some rolls play a bit awkwardly.
Putting all this together I've talked myself into stepping up:
22/21, 9/7, 8/7.
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