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Position of the Day 07-22-26 - Odd Potential Cube
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 07-22-26 - Odd Potential Cube (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 6 August 2026, at 5:08 p.m.
Does anyone have a ref-pos similar to this to compare to? :)
Let's count some Blue rolls and their consequences:
non-PoH rolls: {all 6's,22,55} = 13 rolls, ==> 23 rolls Point-on-Head. White's in bad shape, entering both only 4/36 and half of those {45,54} leave two vulnerable blots. Blue is in great shape (23/36)*(32/36) = 736/1296 ~ 54%.
Of the 13 remaining rolls, 66 makes the 4-pt and the others hit loose. White pretty much needs a 6 (with 51 counting after Blue's 66 roll) or entering doublets. Blue is in excellent shape otherwise: (13/36)*(23/36) = 23*(13/1296) ~23%.
Adding those two means Blue is looking really good 77% of the time. If all those were wins and the remainder 23% losses AND we could ignore gammons this looks close to the Take/Pass borderline. Blue can still win some of his 23% bad sequences but White can also win occasionally even after her 77% bad sequences. I'm going to guess that not only isn't this a wash but it favors the player on roll now -- Blue.
Finally what about gammons? Again, both sides can win them but in particular when White hits she likely will be shooting at a couple blots when Blue fans, probably with a Play-On. This feels like it goes in White's favor.
Maybe I've oversimplified this problem but IMO I'm coming down on the side of taking. However, seems like a huge double.
Big D + Small T.
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